@Article{WongchuigMellChou:2018:PrImCl,
               author = "Wongchuig, Sly C. and Mello, Carlos R. and Chou, Sin Chan",
          affiliation = "{Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)} and 
                         {Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit 
                         and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, 
                         Peru",
              journal = "Journal of Mountain Science",
                 year = "2018",
               volume = "15",
               number = "5",
                pages = "264--279",
             keywords = "Precipitation, Evaporation, Precipitation Concentration Index 
                         (PCI), Modified Fournier Index (MFI), Climate change, Tropical 
                         Andes.",
             abstract = "Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable 
                         development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. 
                         This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential 
                         evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation 
                         concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, 
                         which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. 
                         We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
                         A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global 
                         climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the 
                         steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river 
                         valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model 
                         simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. 
                         The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly 
                         precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially 
                         during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end 
                         of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the 
                         monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The 
                         Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant 
                         downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a 
                         possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The 
                         Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically 
                         significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more 
                         irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end 
                         of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude 
                         that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and 
                         precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for 
                         agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro 
                         River Basin in Peru.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8",
                 issn = "1672-6316",
                label = "self-archiving-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "wonghuig_projections.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}